Inflation and Economic Growth in Kenya: An Empirical Examination

TALKNICE SAUNGWEME; Nicholas M Odhiambo

doi:10.47654/v25y2021i3p1-25

Authors

TALKNICE SAUNGWEME UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH AFRICA Corresponding Author
Nicholas M Odhiambo Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.47654/v25y2021i3p1-25

Keywords:

inflation, economic growth, ARDL, Granger-causality, Kenya

Abstract

Purpose

This paper examines the relationship between inflation and economic growth in Kenya from an analytical and empirical standpoint.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper applies the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach and the multivariate Granger-causality test using time series data covering 1970-2019. Structural breaks in the time series were also conducted using the Perron (1997) (PPURoot) and Zivot-Andrews (1992) (ZAU Root) techniques. Incorporating structural breaks into time series increases statistical inference's overall validity.

Findings

Inflation and economic growth in Kenya were found to have structural breaks in 1995 and 1991. These years are marked by Kenya's economic, financial, public sector and institutional reforms. The other findings of the study revealed that inflation has a statistically significant negative influence on long-term economic growth. The multivariate Granger-causality results showed a distinct short-run unidirectional causality from economic growth to inflation in Kenya.

Practical implications

In order to mitigate the negative consequences of inflation and the coronavirus on the economy and welfare, the study recommends that Kenya's government should pursue prudent monetary, financial, and fiscal policies.

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